FTSE100, the new government and an all time high

FTSE100, the new government and an all time high

Author
Discussion

Ari

Original Poster:

19,376 posts

218 months

Yesterday (13:46)
quotequote all
I was curious to see how the change of government would affect the FTSE100. Interestingly, on election day it rose, and the day the result was announced it went up again as soon as the market opened, although it actually finished below the opening figure on the 5th July. Today, so far, it's up again.

Does that suggest that the election result is seen as positive, or is it evidence that actually, the election result had very little effect and it's just doing what it's doing?

And the big one (which I appreciate that no one can answer, but it's interesting to speculate), where next for the FTSE100 under Labour?

Right now the FTSE100 is at an all time high. Should we be buying in, or cashing out whilst it's high?


limpsfield

5,904 posts

256 months

Yesterday (13:47)
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US markets hit fresh all time highs on Friday again.

The performance of other global markets is far more of a pull on the FTSE than the new government.

okgo

38,674 posts

201 months

Yesterday (15:23)
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FTSE also a fair bit higher in May than it is now.

Countdown

40,471 posts

199 months

Yesterday (15:31)
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AIUI the FTSE250 is supposed to be a better indicator of how well the UK economy is doing.

fat80b

2,361 posts

224 months

Yesterday (15:32)
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Ari said:
I was curious to see how the change of government would affect the FTSE100. Interestingly, on election day it rose, and the day the result was announced it went up again as soon as the market opened, although it actually finished below the opening figure on the 5th July. Today, so far, it's up again.

Does that suggest that the election result is seen as positive, or is it evidence that actually, the election result had very little effect and it's just doing what it's doing?

And the big one (which I appreciate that no one can answer, but it's interesting to speculate), where next for the FTSE100 under Labour?

Right now the FTSE100 is at an all time high. Should we be buying in, or cashing out whilst it's high?
I read something that said a) A labour victory was already priced in, and b) it's particularly good for house builders of which there are a few in the FTSE.

And in terms of all time highs - It turns out that there are all time highs all the time if you look at the past - it's pretty much guaranteed in a rising market smile

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTZxoccYpW4 does an OK job of convincing you that you should just continue to invest regardless of there being all time highs all the time

OoopsVoss

529 posts

13 months

Yesterday (15:54)
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FTSE100 - Global Companies, revenues largely from outside UK (low levels of UK Govt correlation)
FTSE250 - UK Centric Companies revenues INTERNAL to UK (higher levels of UK Govt correlation)

Like other Equity markets, particularly US - don't underestimate Central Bank action as a indicator of direction of travel to get your "risks" on.

What the market thinks of the new UK government - you need to look at Gilts.

Phooey

12,680 posts

172 months

Yesterday (16:11)
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OoopsVoss said:
What the market thinks of the new UK government - you need to look at Gilts.
Early days but gilts and markets seem fairly relaxed about a Labour gov? Seems no big surprises apart from a slight sigh of relief of a landslide victory. The calm before the st...

Ed.Neumann

488 posts

11 months

Yesterday (17:36)
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OoopsVoss said:
Like other Equity markets, particularly US - don't underestimate Central Bank action as a indicator of direction of travel to get your "risks" on.

What the market thinks of the new UK government - you need to look at Gilts.
These two points people really start to think about.

Central Banks like a government that plays their games, does as they are told.

They pull all the strings.

And if ever there was a PM that will do exactly as they want it is Starmer.

OoopsVoss

529 posts

13 months

Yesterday (17:49)
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Phooey said:
Early days but gilts and markets seem fairly relaxed about a Labour gov? Seems no big surprises apart from a slight sigh of relief of a landslide victory. The calm before the st...
Not so sure about the last sentence. France is going to help Starmer and Reeves out no end. Even as a learning exercise...

Simpo Two

86,028 posts

268 months

Yesterday (22:13)
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Ari said:
I was curious to see how the change of government would affect the FTSE100. Interestingly, on election day it rose, and the day the result was announced it went up again as soon as the market opened, although it actually finished below the opening figure on the 5th July. Today, so far, it's up again.

Does that suggest that the election result is seen as positive, or is it evidence that actually, the election result had very little effect and it's just doing what it's doing?
It was highest in May when the Conservatives were in power. I don't think it has much to do with government, it's too international. I don't think the world cares very much about the machinations of No.10.

Ari

Original Poster:

19,376 posts

218 months

Simpo Two said:
It was highest in May when the Conservatives were in power. I don't think it has much to do with government, it's too international. I don't think the world cares very much about the machinations of No.10.
You're right, I missed that for some reason. And yes, you seem to be right about that too, I'm surprised though.